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Crise réelle mais budget très virtuel

Le budget 2008 voté fin 2007 tablait sur une croissance annuelle de 1,7 à 2,25%. Le recul de 0,3% du PIB au deuxième trimestre vient réduire à néant ce scénario tout en augmentant dangereusement le risque de voir encore déraper le déficit.

Mis en ligne le 20 août 2008

Une fois encore, les prévisions économiques de la loi de finances viennent se fracasser sur la réalité. Fin 2007, le budget 2008 voté fin 2007 avait tablé sur une croissance de 2 à 2,5%. Dès février, pourtant, le FMI et l’Union européenne jouaient une toute autre musique avec des prévisions bien inférieures plafonnant à 1,7%. La ministre de l’Economie Christine Lagarde était immédiatement montée au créneau pour confirmer que la croissance française serait supérieure à 1,9%, le taux enregistré en 2007.

PIB 2eme trimestre 2008 —(commentaire photo)—

Cliquez pour voir le graphique sur le site de l’INSEE dans une nouvelle fenêtre.

—(fin commentaire photo)—

Après un premier trimestre timide (0,6%), chiffre que l’Insee a ramené à 0,4%, le recul de 0,3% enregistré au second semestre ruine tout espoir d’atteindre les objectifs fixés lors du vote du budget 2008. Il faut remonter à 2002 pour trouver une baisse du PIB. La Banque de France table désormais pour l’année 2008 sur une croissance de 1%.

L’emploi fléchit lui aussi en ce deuxième trimestre avec une perte sèche de 12 200 postes alors que le premier trimestre s’était achevé sur un solde positif de 70 700. L’industrie à décliner avec une réduction de 44 000 postes sur un an.

Gilmar S. MARTINS


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