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Le budget 2006 est déjà sur les rails...

Concocté avec trois mois d’avance par rapport au calendrier habituel, le budget 2006 sera surtout le premier à être bâti sur une logique de résultat. Les dépenses seront réparties en missions et programmes qui seront évalués avec des indicateurs de performance. Ce changement radical a pour origine la loi organique relative aux lois de finances (LOLF) votée le 1er août 2001.

Mis en ligne le 17 mars 2004

Ils se suivent mais ne se ressemblent pas du tout... En 2004, la première réunion du gouvernement sur le budget avait eu lieu le 19 mai. Cette année, ce sera fin janvier. Au programme : les différents scénarios de dépenses, la stratégie fiscale et l’évolution des prélèvements sociaux. Deuxième étape : l’envoi des lettres de cadrage dès février. Mi-avril, ce sera le tour des lettres plafond qui fixent le montant des crédits de chaque ministère. Habituellement, elles arrivaient en plein mois d’août.

Hervé Gaymard prévoit par ailleurs de présenter dès mai ou juin - au lieu de la fin août - une stratégie fiscale allant jusqu’en 2007 et qui tiendrait compte des impôts et cotisations sociales. Les députés pourront animer le débat d’orientation budgétaire prévu pour juin.

Un budget plus lisible...

Le budget 2006 sera aussi le premier à appliquer un nouveau dispositif prévu par la loi organique relative aux lois de finances (LOLF) du 1er août 2001. Les dépenses seront ventilées en missions (34), elles-mêmes divisées en programmes (132). Finie donc l’attribution par titres qui avaient fini par s’accumuler - 848 (!)- et rendre incompréhensible la loi de finances. Mieux encore : la LOLF prévoit de mesurer l’efficacité des décisions avec des critères et des rapports de performances...

—(FIN CADRE)---

Le budget 2004 finit très fort

Fin novembre 2004, les recettes nettes du budget sont en hausse de 8,2% par rapport à l’année dernière (206,3 Md €) grâce à quelques grosses locomotives fiscales (+10,7% pour la TVA, +12,2% pour l’impôt sur les sociétés) et au rattachement au budget de l’État des recettes du Fonds de financement de la réforme des cotisations sociales patronales (FOREC). Résultat : le déficit est inférieur de 6 Md € à celui constaté à la même époque en 2003 (-58,4 Md €. contre -65,0 Md €).
—(FIN CADRE)---

"Désormais, la réussite d’un ministre sera mesurée non pas sur sa capacité à augmenter ses crédits d’une année sur l’autre mais sur celle à obtenir les résultats sur lesquels il s’était engagé", , explique M. Copé, ministre délégué au Budget. (AFP, jeudi 27 janvier 2005)

Diminuer les impôts... et les dépenses

Une fois posés la méthode et les outils, reste à voir les priorités. A en croire les propos de Gilles Carrez, rapporteur général du budget à l’Assemblée (Le Figaro ECONOMIE, 13 janvier 2005), la baisse de l’impôt sur le revenu doit rester un priorité puisqu’il est " un levier important pour soutenir la croissance économique ".

Pour compenser la baisse des recettes, Gilles Carrez prône sans surprise la réduction des effectifs publics : " La marge de manoeuvre essentielle se trouve dans les départs en retraite des fonctionnaires. Chaque année, 50 000 à 60 000 agents de la fonction publique font valoir leurs droits. " Dans la foulée, il regrette que l’Etat en " remplace la grande majorité ", de sorte que " les baisses d’effectifs sont insuffisantes ".

D’où sa perplexité devant la possibilité de réduire les dépenses de 10 milliards, comme le voudrait Hervé Gaymard, ministre des Finances : " L’équation risque d’être difficile à résoudre pour plusieurs raisons. D’abord, le budget de 2006 sera marqué par la stabilisation des dépenses en volume pour la quatrième année consécutive. Chaque année qui passe rend cet objectif plus difficile à tenir. A fortiori pour les ministères non prioritaires auxquels sont demandés des efforts considérables. Par ailleurs la dépense de l’Etat est de plus en plus rigide : les intérêts de la dette consomment 14% des crédits, les dépenses de personnel 44%. S’ajoutent à cela les guichets sociaux très difficiles à maîtriser qui représentent près de 25 milliards d’euros, l’enveloppe des allégements de charges patronales pour 17 milliards, etc. Sans compter les risques qui pèsent sur la dette. "

Gilmar S. MARTINS


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